As of this writing, Bitcoin Core (BTC) has fallen through $4,000, and is barely holding a $3,800 level. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has dropped bellow $200. What happened to all the experts who claimed brilliance just a year ago? They had charts. Boy, did they have charts! Fancy words like “retracement,” “capitulation,” “Fibonacci ratios” dotted their sentences. Experience? Well, they’d been analyzing crypto markets for a solid five years-ish! Pundits, philosophers, technical market analysts have gotten everything wrong, and wrong by a lot. Bitcoin has plummeted in its speculative price, and the top 100 coins by capitalization have all but followed. Hodl? Sell? Buy the dip? It’s a confusing time for enthusiasts.
Bitcoin is Dead, Again
Mainstream press headlines are screaming the now well-worn formula: Bitcoin is dead. By Bitcoin, outlets are beginning to employ it as they do Coke or Kleenex — specific, of course, but also meant to represent the broader class. If someone asks for a Coke, they might be just as happy with any soda drink; similarly, offering a Kleenex might not always end in a name brand way to blow a nose.
For those who have about a year’s worth of time “in” the space, they’ve watched the price of digital assets moon to gains few thought realistic. Five digit numbers in their teens, however, seems a distant memory. Relative newbies have also experienced a downturn on the way to an 80% haircut. They’d be among the first to admit this latest spiral among spirals feels different, almost right, its causes better understood.
No shortage of self-appointed experts have weighed-in. An easy target is the turf struggle within Bitcoin Cash (BCH), the world’s fourth largest crypto. Its sworn foes, usually from the Bitcoin Core (BTC) camp, took no small amount of joy in claiming the chain deserved something along these lines. Some BTC supporters even briefly flirted with an enemy-of-my-enemy-is-my-friend philosophy, making very strange bedfellows. It really is a confusing time for the ecosystem.
Surveys of online surf action have declared a renewed interest in Bitcoin, as the word has seen an uptick on major search engines. That could very well mean savvy investors are keen to buy up crypto at severe discounts. More likely is the doom pornography legacy media outlets perpetuate as prices fall, generating interest of the sort who enjoy car crash scenes on roadsides.
The emotional state of the community is hard to gauge, but certainly there is an air of caution, of reserve. It would not be too hard to imagine those with substantial sums ready to invest, or large business interests looking to enter the cryptosphere, could be taking an on purpose pause right now. Bakkt, no matter their official statements, seems to be doing just that ahead of their roll out (now scheduled for late January next year).
In fact, Bitcoin has been pronounced dead over 300 times and counting. That it has been again, and is when it’s especially down and seemingly falling more, could mean greater numbers of folks than ever before are ready to throw in the towel on this whole crypto experiment.
The Basic Fact is No One Understands Bitcoin
For good or bad, better or worse, no one really understands bitcoin — least of all, it would seem, those knee deep in its culture. They’re too wedded to the idea ideologically to see how exchanges, miners, personalities, merchant adoption, wallet tech, regulators, and assorted development teams work at influencing speculative prices.
They’re too close to see the larger picture. That they’re divining what might happen from technical analysis, basically numerology hucksterism no better than overweight older women on late night psychic infomercials, could once and for all convince the ecosystem of their value. They have not been right, and not once.
Those dishing out financial advice with ample amounts of words like “should” and phrasing such as “we as a community” are playing a very dangerous game. Folks now are for sure losing their savings, losing hope. Sound advice is probably not to take investment tips from those who haven’t intimate knowledge of the exact financial situation one finds herself. In other words, it could be a good move to ride the price down, assuming a hodler doesn’t necessarily rely on the money lost and is looking unconcerned longer term.
The Choices are Not Clear, No Matter What Anyone Says
The grim, almost Darwinian view is from the Austrian economic theory spectrum. Basically, neo-Austrians believe these massive market drops are ultimately healthy in a freer market. It’s a culling, sorting of weak hands, and those who remain by definition are better suited to an investment’s longer term goals, as in the above scenario.
Selling right now makes a lot of sense, of course, if an investor’s stomach just cannot take the ride. Get out while there’s still a money little left, and try to enjoy the holidays. That’s an investment strategy too, and it doesn’t require Bitcoin nihilism. It just depends on the person’s situation.
Of course, those with plenty of resources to speculate will claim this to be the perfect time to buy, as when the price dips for an asset one feels to be momentarily undervalued … it does makes sense to purchase as much at a discount as possible. Hey, Bitcoin is on sale. Those of us who live and work in the space are still trying to figure out what this thing is, and the very first realization about coming to any sort of real understanding means intellectual humility. If a Bitcoiner doesn’t start there, crypto will quickly provide all the lessons required.
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