Chicken, Egg: Crypto Chatter Slows as Market Tanks, or Prices Drop Due to Less Talk

Chicken, Egg: Crypto Chatter Slows as Market Tanks, or Prices Drop Due to Less Talk

Crypto Subreddit Tracker is an attempt to measure market sentiment within the cryptocurrency space. Its designer, Dylan Kilkenny (dylkil), set out to take the temperature of Reddit users who focus mainly on crypto topics within various subreddits. 75% of the top 20 subreddits over the last month are noticeably down in activity as measured in comments and posts, and some by nearly half. 

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Chicken or Egg, Crypto Talk and Market Prices

For those familiar with freer market concepts, human psychology plays perhaps the largest role in determining prices. Those numbers flashing up and down in aggregate are communicative devices, telling us something.

Chicken, Egg: Crypto Chatter Slows as Market Tanks, or Prices Drop Due to Less Talk

Holders of crypto know well what arrows and candles mean, and often they’re a difference between being able to sleep well or even hold employment within the wildcat space of decentralized digital currencies.

But just how those prices are eventually determined is a kind of fantastic mystery bedevilling economists and social scientists for as long as history has cared to document. No one understands crypto, of that the ecosystem can be sure. However, of the variables influencing price and, in turn, viability of projects, perhaps market sentiment can yield solid, usable metrics.

Crypto Subreddit Tracker

Besides Twitter, much of the ecosystem has traditionally flocked to sexed-up message boards such as Reddit. There, hundreds of thousands have participated in discussions and debate, sometimes wonky and at still other intervals crass, insulting, often encountering censorship. Users could point to raw numbers in join-ups increasing to read, post, and comment as a successful trend on the way to, perhaps, adoption and moon.

Chicken, Egg: Crypto Chatter Slows as Market Tanks, or Prices Drop Due to Less Talk

Welp. So much for that theory. Sure enough, subscriptions to the various boards remain steady, at least due to actively having to return and click unsubscribe, but no moon, and prices have tanked. In the case of sign-ups, there’s probably a good case to be made for the bull run pushing curious onlookers and potential investors onto Reddit’s many crypto-related subs.

Where such metrics begin to get relevant, however, and possibly lean toward an indicator, is during an extended bear market. Left are the true-believers mostly, those who champion a project or who linger to pump coins. Seems like now would be a good time as any to ferret out what data remain in order to track usage over critical periods. Could this look into subReddits be a window to more accurate measures of mood among the notoriously fickle space?

Interview with Crypto Subreddit Tracker Creator dylkil

To help give insight into measuring such sentiment, CoinSpice was able to interview dylkil, creator of the fascinating trend site, Crypto Subreddit Tracker.

Chicken, Egg: Crypto Chatter Slows as Market Tanks, or Prices Drop Due to Less Talk

CoinSpice: What can Crypto Subreddit Tracker do? 

dylkil: It is currently tracking over 175 different crypto related subreddits, and there is currently 1 year’s worth of historical data gathered for each subreddit. Users can view statistics for each subreddit such as the top 10 most discussed coins, the most used words, and view how the subreddit’s activity has been performing over the past year. Using the comparison chart, users can compare how a subreddit’s activity is performing compared to 1 or more other subreddits. Some of the sections such as ‘most popular coins’ allow users to view the all time stats, or choose a date and view which coins were most actively discussed for that specific day.

Why did you start Crypto Subreddit Tracker?

Well, cryptosub started during my final year of college. For my thesis I was determining how accurately you could predict the price movements of different cryptocurrencies using sentiment and activity on social media. Initially the project tracked across Twitter also. Although the cryptosphere isn’t contained within Reddit, I think cryptosub gives a decent measurement of how much actual interest and discussion is taking place regarding a specific cryptocurrency.

What is it measuring? Market sentiment? Bullishness?

Though the crypto sphere is much bigger than Reddit, I think this information offers some useful insight into how much interest there is in a particular project and how much discussion is actually taking place. A strong community is a bullish signal in my opinion.

What were the challenges in creating the site, maintaining it?

The original intention was to retrieve data as far back as the creation of each subreddit, but changes to the search API offered by Reddit make this a lot harder to do now. The site itself is pretty low maintenance, and the project is open source with a pretty straightforward setup (if anyone ever wanted to run it themselves in order to check the accuracy of the statistics).

Chicken, Egg: Crypto Chatter Slows as Market Tanks, or Prices Drop Due to Less Talk

Are you working on any future versions of the site?

At the moment I’m tied up with some other projects, but the aim is to revamp the site soon, making it mobile friendly and possibly adding some new metrics.

How did you get into crypto?

I can’t quite remember how I came across crypto, but it was sometime during the first year of my degree in 2014. I didn’t fully understand bitcoin back then, though I found it incredibly interesting nonetheless. I was completely enthralled by the space in 2016 after learning more about ethereum.

Where are you based, and is the project self funded?

I am based in Ireland and yes, it’s self funded.

How’s the crypto scene on the Emerald Isle?

It’s not too bad actually. Quite a lot of blockchain/fintech talks and meetups happening even during a bear market. There’s a crypto cafe on one of the busiest streets in the Dublin.

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