CRYPTO DEV DIGEST: Difficulty Adjustment, Hash Rate, & Dunning–Kruger Effect of BTC Influencers

Dunning–Kruger

TL;DR: Crypto Dev Digest (CDD) documents cryptocurrency development, highlighting the projects and persons working under the hood. BTC influencer demonstrates textbook Dunning–Kruger effect. Crescent Wallet and Be.Cash are updating like crazy. STAMP Alpha messaging ready for a test run. AVA Labs continues its tear, and tons more in this digest. BUIDL!

Dunning–Kruger Effect of BTC Influencers

At the turn of the present century, in a series of papers American social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger outlined what would come to be known as the Dunning–Kruger effect: those who don’t know often don’t know they do not know and yet proceed with ever-more confidence, unearned swagger. Dunning–Kruger examines the cognitive bias of how those with comparatively low ability often overestimate their competence. Few in the ecosystem exhibit Dunning–Kruger better than BTC maximalists, and hardly any with more verve, panache than BTC influencer Dovey Wan. It can be breathtaking at times: petty, vicious, name-calling, … and never an ounce of mea culpa, reflection, pause, humility.

More recently, Ms. Wan gloriously Dunning–Kruger ‘d on the subject of Bitcoin’s interplay between miners securing the BTC network, reward halvings, hash rate, transaction fees, difficulty adjustments, and mempool clogs — all of which have become quite the topic of conversation in the space of late. No one pretends to understand how those variables will work themselves out in the wild; well, no one except BTC influencers, that is, buoyed by their lack of fundamental understanding of the tech.

Depending on who is doing the analysis, the corresponding baked-in BTC difficulty adjustment could be just what the doctor ordered, a genius move, designed to ease the inevitable fallout of planned digital scarcity impacting the mining community. Or, it could expose BTC to the charge of ever-greater centralization and real problems going forward. This month, those conflicting interpretations have taken hold for the time being, and it’s getting interesting. BTC hash rates, as expected, have been all over the place, with difficulty adjusting in the mid-single digits.

Will it be enough to compensate? That depends in part on the speculative spot price of BTC. Should it plunge double-digits, the game is for sure over as it relates to substantial numbers of miners. Some point to increasing BTC network congestion, the dreaded mempool backlog and its impact on prices. Historically, the two haven’t matched up as might be intuitively thought. BTC Hash rate, on the other hand, reached all-time-highs between difficulty adjustments. This could leave a lot of room for potential disaster: less miners, slower block times, pushing the next adjustment for relief more distantly off and out of reach, as the prospect of unmined blocks looms, forever-stuck blocks. Some have suggested alleviating this scenario would require a hard fork which is in heavy contrast to the “no one leads Bitcoin” just-so story. Stay tuned. Oh, Dovey.

  • STAMP Alpha Released for Testing

Stamp v0.0.2-alpha.5 released! Come test it out! from btc

“The system is very similar to XMPP/SMTP, but with end to end encryption based on secp256k1 keys so payments can be integrated. The messages are structured, so I’m intended to add a Dapp browser based on off-chain smart contracts as well.

“This will be significantly more scalable and feature-rich than Ethereum due to everything being done *only* by the people wanting to run those contracts.

“The BCH is also used as an anti-spam method so that we don’t need any centralized moderation and federated systems actually work — without places like Google being needed to thwart spam.

“That’s not to say there won’t be any spam. There will be, but at least it will pay us,” notes creator Shammah Chancellor, expanding on his project discussed at length here.

  • AVA Labs on the Move

  • Spedn 0.3 Released

  • CoinText to Deactivate in 30 Countries

  • Coinbase Bitcoin Cash Block Explorer

  • Most Stable Release of Fulcrum Yet

  • Crescent Cash Updates

  • Be.Cash Continues Apace

  • Finding Negative Block Times

“As the focus for Bitcoin Cash protocol development is shifting to the November upgrade we should look at the difficulty adjustment algorithm (DAA).

“The current DAA, that doesn’t work so well, is a simple filter and it has been suggested by various people that an exponential decay filter would work better. A little investigation shows that when blocks have so-called negative duration, this causes problems for such a solution, though.

Dunning–Kruger

“So when the timestamps from block N is higher than the one after it. This is legal on the blockchain and it turns out that this would be a problem in a DAA which uses the exponential decay algorithm.

“So this raises the question: how often does this actually happen? How often is the timestamp of a block before the timestamp of the block it extends?”

FloweeJS; finding negative block times

  • CashAccounts Updates

  • Best BCH Wallets

  • Congrats!

  • BCHN Online API Documentation

  • Bitcoin.com Wallet Smokes

  • Flipstarter to the Next Level

  • BCH-JS New SLP Function

  • Cash Pay Server

  • Ameliorate Block Time Oscillations

  • Mine Bitcoin Cash Anonymously

Dunning–Kruger

HashPipe Pool

  • BCH Ignite

  • Knuth v0.3.0 Released

  • OP_REVERSEBYTES Added to Bitcore-lib-cash

  • Tipbitcoin.cash for Livestreamers

  • Pin Files to IPFS on the Cheap

  •  BitcoinBileto

BitcoinBileto are business card sized, professionally printed, scratch-off cards which a person can purchase and load with BCH. They are designed so that they can be loaded with BCH by the person who buys them in order to give them out for the purpose of onboarding other people. They can be loaded with as much or as little BCH as the purchaser chooses. Although the average funded on each card may only be a few dollars, a batch of bileto can be loaded such that a couple of the cards have a much higher amount. This aspect gives the crypto naive recipient the incentive to go ahead, download a wallet and scan the QR code in case he or she is the person who ‘wins big.'”

  • Updates to Bitcoin Cash Java Library

Are here.

Privacy

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DYOR: CoinSpice is your home for just spicy crypto things. We’re not affiliated with any cryptocurrency project or token. Each published piece is intended for information purposes only, not investment advice and not in the hope of impacting speculative markets. There are plenty of trading sites and coin-specific advocacy journals out there, we’re neither. CoinSpice strives for rigorous accuracy in our reporting. Information presented here is contingent usually on a host of factors, and the ecosystem moves fast — prices change, projects change, and at warp speed. Do your own research.

DISCLOSURE: The author holds cryptocurrency as part of his financial portfolio, including BCH.