Cryptocurrencies used as investment tools are hedgy bets. The cryptocurrency market today is quite volatile, (as many a teary-eyed shitcoin trader can attest), and it will continue to be so until the usage of “cryptos” as currency or some other actual utility becomes generalized and widespread. While there have been some great advancements in that regard, crypto adopters thus far remain a niche group among the sum total of people on our planet. Nevertheless, in this period of speculation and uncertainty, there is a certain kind of so-called “financial expert” that continually attempts to predict the swings of the market. No matter how many countless times they have been previously incorrect, these self anointed price gurus feel the desire to take one more crack at it.
What’s even more astounding than the hubris innate in believing that the future of a free market can be foretold is that these muchachos are supporting their predictions using the same failed reasons that led them to make erroneous predictions previously. Michael Novogratz, a known cryptocurrency investor, has declared that he thinks that the present bear market is over and that the cryptocurrency market has bottomed out. His evidence to support these claims, as well as all of the evidence he puts forward in the wake of any of his past crypto predictions is, simply stated, not good. To be fair, Novogratz has a track record of accurate price prediction that is as soiled as a pair of drawers following an evening spent drinking an entire bottle of Ghost Pepper CoinSpice Hot Sauce (coming soon), so perhaps we shouldn’t be too surprised. While we have yet to confirm if he is using some dark capitalist magic or reading tea leaves to descry his conclusions, some people, inexplicably, are still taking what this man has babbled as serious investment advice. Since he’s currently predicting a closing price for bitcoin core BTC of $10K at the end of the year, this could leave many a poor sap high and dry if they take this baseless prediction as fact.
Another so-called expert, Marius Kramer, has predicted that the price of bitcoin will experience a hike to more than $50k or even $100k in December. He is basing this upon the emergence of a platform called BAKKT that plans to bring cryptocurrency to institutions such as Microsoft and retail monsters like Starbucks. But hold on, haven’t we heard something of this sort before? Wasn’t it only a handful of months ago that Coinbase started offering custody options, massive institutions included? Hearing this same line over and over again from the same “market insiders” is beginning to sound quite a bit like the Tale of Peter and the Wolf.
Regardless of whether or not these predictions actually do come to pass, all of these crypto fortune tellers have been making the same bullish remarks the entire year, and the market has not reacted accordingly. To state the obvious, cryptocurrencies as investments have been inefficient this year. Even wool has proven to be a better and more profitable business than cryptocurrencies during this time. One might think that throughout this bout of extreme volatility that making bunches of predictions on the future pricing/valuation for a cryptocurrency, even if such guesses are done randomly and with no real evidence to build them on, would surely result in at least one of the many yielding some accuracy just through sheer luck. But are you really willing to gamble your hard earned bits on such randomness?
Every time you hear a so-called expert talking about the price of a crypto in the future, try your best to remember that cryptocurrencies are still very much new investment instruments and the real one was never designed to be anything other than p2p money. There really is no such thing as an “expert” at predicting what market pricing for cryptocurrencies might be someday. Those claiming themselves to be anything of the sort are doing so after they have appointed themselves to the position. For all anyone can guess, they could just be using whatever public attention they receive as a result to generate a bit of price movement to earn themselves a few extra bucks. Whatever the case, these outlandish predictions that are based upon nothing more than a hunch should be disregarded in their entirety, and when we see the next outlandish claim make the rounds, we will all be happier for it.